Two bonds default independently with probabilities p1 and p2 over a 1-year horizon.
What is the probability that both bonds default? At least one defaults? Exactly one defaults?
Now suppose defaults are not independent — they're coupled by a Gaussian copula with correlation ρ. Specifically, let Xi=Φ−1(Ui) where Ui∼Uniform(0,1) and (X1,X2) is bivariate normal with correlation ρ. Bond i defaults iff Xi<Φ−1(pi) (i.e., Ui<pi). Compute the joint default probability as a function of ρ.
What happens as ρ→1? As ρ→−1? Why is this model infamous (hint: 2008)?